Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison

In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications which are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time varying correlations, heavytailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the most adequate specifications are those that allow for time varying correlation coefficients.Multivariate stochastic volatility; Granger causality in volatility; Heavy-tailed distributions; Time varying correlations; Factors; MCMC; DIC.

A question of value(s): Political connectedness and executive compensation in public sector organizations

While the de-politicization of public sector management was a core objective of past reform initiatives, more recent debates urge the state to act as a strong principal when it comes to public sector unity and policy coherence - and consequently make a case for reinvigorating links between the political and managerial sphere. Using data from Austrian public sector organizations, we test and confirm the causal relationship of political connectedness of board members and executive compensation. Differentiating between value-based and interest-based in-groups, we suggest that only value-based political connectedness has the potential to restore patronage as a control instrument and governance tool. Self-interested and reward-driven patronage, on the other hand, indicated by a strong association of political connectedness and executive pay, refers to the type of politicization that previous public sector reforms promised to abolish

Generations of meaning : memory, technology and the South African audio archival context

Includes abstract.Like it or not, the past infects the world we live in, the decisions we make, the very choices we see to lie before us. If we ignore its influence, we do not escape its power

A prospective study on the persistence of infant crying, sleeping and feeding problems and preschool behaviour

Aim: To determine the persistence of regulatory problems (RP), i.e. excessive crying (>3 months of age), feeding and sleeping difficulties from infancy to preschool age, and to evaluate whether RP at 5 months are predictive of preschool adaptive behaviour and social skills. Method: A prospective population study of newborns admitted to neonatal care. RP at 5, 20 and 56 months of age were obtained via parent interviews and neurological examination and preschool adaptive behaviour and social skills by parent ratings. Logistic and linear regression analyses were conducted and controlled for psychosocial and neurological factors. Results: More than half of the sample had RP at least at one measurement point. In about 8% of infants, RP persisted across the preschool years. Multiple RP and feeding problems increased the odds of eating problems at 20 and 56 months. Persistent RP and feeding problems were predictive of deficits in preschool adaptive behaviour and social skills. In addition, sex differences were found. Conclusions: Multiple RP and feeding problems had the highest stability. Persistent RP were predictive of adverse social and adaptive behaviour. Understanding of the aetiology may help to prevent persistent RP

A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for extracting periodic gravitational wave signals from laser interferometric detector data

The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer practical procedures for detecting signals characterized by a large number of parameters and under conditions of low signal-to-noise ratio. We present a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm capable of inferring the spin and orientation parameters of a neutron star from its periodic gravitational wave signature seen by laser interferometric detector